Race Horse Handicapping

2010-06-15T13:28:00.000-07:00

Race horse handicapping is both an art and a science and in this article I'm going to reveal my secret strategy for consistently beating the race horse handicapping experts and how by doing so I consistently make more money at the race horse track than everyone else.

Race horse handicapping has been practiced for centuries and even today in the information age with almost instantaneous information at our finger tips horse race handicapping is at best an inexact science.

By using the contrarian strategy that I'm about to describe to beat the pros you will be winning more than you statistically should for years to come.

My strategy is based on the fact that most race horse bettors are fueled by their emotions and more often than not they make irrational decisions when looking at race horse handicapping.
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Here's a refresher course on the basics of betting on horses and how race horse handicapping works:

With race horse handicapping the payouts (or spread) aren't locked in at the at the moment a bet is placed. This is in contrast to most other sports betting situations (football, basketball, etc.).

If a week before the Super Bowl you bet on the Pittsburgh Steelers to beat the Arizona Cardinals by at least four points and then a couple of days before the game the line moves to where the Steelers have to beat the Cardinals by six points (or more) for the exact same payout then you get the benefit of having locked in the better odds early.

As stated above race horse handicapping works very differently. Much like its sports betting counterparts the payout (odds, line, whatever you want to call it) can change right up until the start of the event (kickoff, opening of the gate, tip-off, etc.).

The race horse handicapping experts and line setters for other sports adjust the payouts to mitigate their exposure to loss. If the action (betting) on a particular horse or team is so great that it could expose the race horse handicappers to a substantial loss they will adjust (lower) the payouts to reduce that risk.

The major difference with race horse handicapping is that the payouts change even after you've placed your bet. Therefore even more important than knowing what the payout is when you place your bet is having an idea of what the final payout will be - in other words what the final race horse handicapping figure will be at the time the race starts.
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For those not familiar with the system here's a quick overview in it's simplest form:

Race horse handicapping experts may set the payout for a horse named "Lightning" at 1:2, meaning that this horse is such a favorite that for every $2 you bet you only win $1 ($3 payback) if this horse wins.

Another horse named "Steady Pace" has his initial race horse handicapping odds set at 3:1, meaning that this horse is such a long shot that for every $1 you bet you win $3 (payback of $4) if this horse wins.

Before continuing this discussion we should briefly discuss the psychology of (literally) picking a horse.

Lots of bettors at the race track think they have a system for beating the experts and whether that means online research before race day, meticulously watching the horses before a race, or any number of other methods the ultimate decisions often come down to their gut feelings.

The other group of people that you see at the race track are substantially different in some respects and surprisingly similar in others.

The group I'm now talking about is the casual fans who come out with their families and just plan to place some bets for fun. The one thing this group has in common with the more serious race horse enthusiasts is that when it comes to beating the line setting professionals both groups go with their gut feelings.
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Now that we've gone over a little bit of the psychology involved in picking race horses let's get back to the two horses described earlier:

Lightning, the favorite, opened at 1:2
Steady Pace, the long shot, opened at 3:1

As mentioned earlier these lines set by the race horse handicapping experts aren't set in stone and can (and likely will) move right up until the start of the race - regardless of how early you place your bet.

Logic dictates (and it's been my experience) that the popular horse names command an inordinate amount of action (betting). By this I mean that if a horse has a particularly attractive sounding name (i.e. Lightning) it's likely to get a relatively greater amount of money bet on it than a horse with a less attractive sounding name (i.e. Steady Pace).

Initially the race horse handicapping experts set the lines based on the ability and track records of these horses (with no consideration given to the superficial names).

With names like Lightning and Steady Pace it wouldn't be surprising to see the lines move from:

Lightning, the favorite, opened at 1:2 - closed at 1:4
Steady Pace, the long shot, opened at 3:1 - closed at 5:1

What this means is that because so much money was bet on Lightning (due to his attractive name) the line setting gurus changed the payout from $1 won for every $2 bet to $1 won for every $4 bet. Essentially cutting the payout in half.

On the flip side the race horse handicapping powers that be saw that not enough people were betting on Steady Pace (whose name doesn't conjure up images of speed) so to increase the betting on this horse they had to improve his payout from $3 won for every $1 bet to $5 won for every $1 bet. Essentially increasing the payout by 66.7%.

Basically what's happened is that despite the rational and mathematical approach that the race horse handicapping group took to initially set the lines based on the best estimated probabilities of victory the betting public with its inclination to trust its collective gut has artificially moved the lines so that the payouts don't accurately reflect the probabilities of the outcomes.

Based on the initial race horse handicapping we know that Lightning is technically still the favorite to win the race and Steady Pace is still the long shot. A more important fact is that even though we still don't expect Steady Pace to win this race we know that if he does his payout will be higher than the probabilities should dictate. Conversely, the reward for correctly picking Lightning isn't sufficient compensation for the risk taken.
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Simply put the purpose of this oversimplified example is to illustrate that in the long run you're far better off going against the grain and taking a contrarian approach when it comes to your analysis.

Don't fall into the 'group think' that an appealing name like Lightning, or Money-Bags, or Speed Demon means the horse is any better than what the race horse handicapping crew originally set the line at. Pick horses with the least appealing names and in the long run you'll do far better than if you had fallen in line with the masses.
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If you're completely new to race horse handicapping and the more advanced systems in the right hand column seem too complex for you I suggest starting with Betting on Horse Racing for Dummies from the popular series available at most bookstores and on Amazon.com.

Handicapping Long Shot System

2010-06-04T12:29:00.000-07:00

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Winning Long Shot Bets in Horse Racing Handicapping
by: Bill Peterson

Finding a long shot that wins at a good price is one of the great thrills for a handicapper, but there is usually a good reason for a horse going off at long odds. Therefore, if you chase long shots, you're bound to go broke real fast.

The fact that the trainer or rider of a particular horse hasn't won many races will often drive the odds up, even though the horse is a solid contender. That is because too much emphasis is placed on the abilities of the people involved with the horse and too little emphasis is placed on the horse's ability.

The reason so many handicappers place so much importance on the jockey or trainer is that most of the races are won by just a handful of top jockeys and top trainers at most tracks. Every once in a while an obscure trainer or low percentage jockey manages to win a race, and usually at good odds. The reason this happens is that the average bettor likes to be reassured that he or she is betting on a proven professional conditioner or rider.

While it is true that the horse can't win without the jockey, it is also true that the jockey can only go as fast as the horse can run. I have seen mediocre jockeys beat Hall of Fame jockeys because they had the better horse. Therefore, if you are looking for a good long shot bet in a horse race, try to find a favorite that is being over bet because the jockey is a favorite of the crowd.

It also helps if the horse being ridden by the top jockey is dropping in class. Though a drop in class often helps a horse, if the horse's form is declining, it may have lost its ability to win, even at a lower level. That top level jockey may have stayed on the mount out of gratitude to the owner or trainer, but he or she may also realize the horse has little chance of winning. When an animal starts to lose its physical conditioning, it often loses its will to win and will disappoint, even at a lower class level.

Therefore, find a top jockey on a horse that is over rated by the crowd in a race with a solid contender being ridden by a little known jockey and you may find an excellent long shot bet.

Long shots are the best bets when you know how to rate them with Bill's Long shot Rater at http://williewins.homestead.com/longshotrater.html. To see all Bill's horse racing material go to http://williewins.homestead.com/handicappingstore.html Bill's handicapping store.

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Main Problem For Horse Handicappers

2010-05-17T19:57:00.000-07:00

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The Biggest Problem Horse Racing Handicappers Have to Overcome
by: Bill Peterson

There are lots of problems that people encounter when they set out to handicap horse races. If they are strictly interested in picking a winner with little thought of making a profit, then all they have to do is find the horse that has the most speed and recent form. That is usually the horse with the lowest odds in the morning line. But if he or she wants to make a profit from his or her picks, then life becomes much more complicated.

Money has a way of complicating everything, doesn't it? How many people think they would have an easier and simpler life if only they had more money only to find that having more money makes life more complicated? The stories of lottery winners are a perfect example of that. Many find that the thrill of winning soon wears off but the problems of dealing with all that money and so many people trying to cheat them goes on.

The same is true of handicapping. Sitting down with your past performances or in front of your computer and sorting through the races, looking for your favorite angles, may be an enjoyable way to spend your morning. But when you start making real money bets, especially if you lose a few, it takes a lot of the carefree pleasure out of it and stress and worry soon set in. That is when you realize the biggest problem handicappers face. It is simply making it all pay. Why is that?

Many people are good at picking winners, but still lose money playing the races. The biggest challenge for any handicapper isn't learning how to handicap horse races, it is finding a way to make money from it. That isn't as easy as it may sound, no matter how good you are at picking winners. The reason is that money and betting are complicated in ways that picking winners is not. While a horse's form cycle may change from race to race, overall, what you see is what you get.

But such is not the case when it comes to betting on horse races. About half of all the money wagered on a horse race isn't totaled and added to the pools until after the race goes off and you can no longer bet. So when you are shopping for a good bet and basing your decisions on the odds on the tote board just a few minutes before post time, you are looking at half or even less of the money wagered. You will not know the final odds until after the race has started and the mutuel pools close.

Back in the days before pari-mutuel wagering, legal bookmakers would give you odds on a horse and that was what it paid, no matter what. In other words, when you bet it, you knew exactly what it would pay. They also took less out for profit because they competed against each other for your business. That is why horse players, good ones, made a profit and that is exactly why it is so hard to make a profit now. The race track and state have a monopoly on your bets and you don't know what you are buying. I don't want to discourage you, but that is a terrible way to invest money.

You not only have to get good at projecting how the odds will change after post time, but you should also know which states take out the smallest amounts and give the horse player the best chance at making a profit.

If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://williewins.homestead.com/truecb.html and get the truth. Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. To see all Bill's horse racing material go to Horse Racing Handicapping, Bill's handicapping store.

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Learn Race Horse Handicapping

2010-04-16T11:29:00.000-07:00

Learn Race Horse Handicapping

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Learn Horse Racing Handicapping and Enjoy the Sporting Life
By Bill Peterson

Through the years many people discover horse racing and betting on horse races and decide to try to make a living or at least a profit from their bets. It seems like such a fun way to make money. An enjoyable day at the track, trying to decipher the mysteries of each race and to pick winners, it all seems so idyllic.

It usually starts with a little luck at first, commonly called beginner's luck. There is nothing like cashing a ticket that you bought for a few bucks and getting more money back to start the fires of greed burning. Perhaps greed is too strong a word with negative connotations beyond what is actually going on with most race track goers, but the desire for easy money does fuel a lot of interest in horse racing. That is an unfortunate situation.

First of all, you learn very quickly that consistently picking winners and making money betting on horse racing is not easy. The harder you try, the harder it seems to become. You wonder why it seemed so easy at first and how you ever won. It is because luck does play a part in horse racing handicapping, but also, and more importantly, so does skill, discipline, and hard work.

If you really want to learn how to handicap horse races and to make money betting on horses you have to work at it and develop your skill. It is no different than any other skill such as playing a piano, ballroom dancing, playing poker. It is sometimes called an intellectual sport. In order to make a profit at it you'll have to learn how to find a good bet, because that is really what it is all about.

If you only focus on the money, however, you will miss a lot of entertainment and fun, because following the horses, trainers, jockeys and all the drama and human and animal interest stories is part of what is known as the sporting life. Whether you actually ever get to make a living by betting on horses, you will enjoy an interesting world of real life heroes and athletes, both the four footed and two legged.

While the money is important, if you manage to keep it all in perspective and don't go overboard, you will enjoy it much more and discover why so many people choose the sporting life, going to horse races, and participating in other intellectual sports.

If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://williewins.homestead.com/truecb.html and get the truth. Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. To see all Bill's horse racing material go to Horse Racing Handicapping, Bill's handicapping store.

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Conservative Race Horse Handicapping

2010-03-21T14:31:00.000-07:00

Conservative Race Horse Handicapping

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Horse Race Betting, Horse Handicappers, and Playing it Safe
By Thomas Westervelt

Horse Race tracks establish common betting pools for each type of wager in a race and deducts a certain percentage as a commission (approximately 15-29%) depending on the type of wager, before returning the rest of the money to the winning bettors. We are surprised day after day at the track as we see folks betting the favorites, so we decided to interview a few of them for our video series on horse handicapping and wagering.

Many of the interviews indicated that people just wanted to play it safe, and decided to go with the flow. We tried to explain that the flow loses most of the time, and that they are actually wagering against the other people wagering at the park, and that their odds fluctuate according to how much money is wagered on each horse.

After they went to our website and learned some basic betting knowledge, and advanced betting strategies we got some feedback that their winning bets were coming in more often.

I suppose the most compelling reason they changed their minds is that they actually met someone that makes a comfortable living betting on horse races. These people were happy to win once out of every 8 races, and console themselves that they could have lost more! When they met someone that consistently made profits, and has to hire an accountant to report his winnings to the IRS every year, they were flabbergasted!

What did they learn TO DO?

- Never Bet 1st and 2nd choices in an exacta or a trifecta

- If a Heavy favorite looks difficult to beat, bet it as an anchor in a pick3

(See Advanced Betting Techniques)

- Do your homework in advance before arriving at the track.

- Make sure to include all handicapping criteria.

- Weight handicapping criteria in order of importance.

- Make sure that the return is worth the investment.

- Be consistent in your betting.

- Bet only the tracks that you know best.

- Bet the tracks where you get the best ROI.

- Consider horses that have won at the track that you are betting.

- Consider horses that do their best at todays distance and surface.

- Bet your own picks not who "they" are betting.

- Pay Attention to the Jockeys and the Trainers.

- Study - The horses past history, including when the last race was and the lifetime best speed.

What did they learn NOT TO DO?

- Do not be influenced by odds.

- Do not bet tips

- Do not bet a favorite under 9 to 5 to win.

- Do not bet to show

- Do not bet a Heavy favorite on top in an exacta or trifecta with under 8 horses.

- Do not feel that you have to bet every race.

- Do not bet when track conditions change.

- Do not bet numbers or names.

- Do not bet on a trainer that has not won at the meet after the meet has run for 30 days.

- Do not bet a jockey that has not won at the meet after the meet has run for 30 days.

- Pay Attention to the Jockeys and the Trainers.

- Study The horses past history, including when the last race was and the lifetime best speed.

- Do not be afraid to pass races that have no value.

Many people lose money at this, simply because they bet every race. You must wait for the right opportunity before you wager your hard earned cash. As sure as the sun will rise every day, so will an opportunity show up for you to act upon. You can be part of the few that regards horse wagering as horse investing, and that just makes good horse cents!

The Author is a 30 year veteran of the internet, Business owner, Web Master, Video producer and a certified HIGH TECH in information technology. His recent published works include "A Portal To Nature" a documentary on Yellowstone, and his recent web site startup MyHorseHandicapper.com establishing hims once again as a winning entrepreneur. Look for his Blogs and follow him on social media sites where he is NickNamed "NetSavyGuy".

For more information see our training series at http://www.myhorsehandicapper.com

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Horse Handicapping

2010-02-01T11:08:00.000-08:00

Horse Handicapping

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The Secrets of Handicapping a Horse Race Against the Paper's Tipsters
By: Andreas Y James

The paper's tipsters are basically the guys you see in the racing papers predicting who is going to win, simple as that. The thing that you should really take note of is how many horses that particular tipster has provided selections for that day. This is because the way it works in the racing papers is that some tipsters are required to provide selections for pretty much every race on the calendar.

Obviously if you are forced to make selections in races you see no benefit in your selections are not going to be up to scratch. So any tipster that is tipping on every race in the calendar is likely to have a negative return. If you see a real pro in there that is just choosing a few bets for the day based on information he has garnished from past form and specialist knowledge then there is a chance he will be pretty good at picking the winners.

So why am I telling you this you are probably asking yourself right now and the reason is simple; you can know absolutely nothing about horses but if you know the tipsters you can still profit greatly.

Take for example the first scenario I told you about, the guy who makes a selection on every race who is likely to have a negative value on his picks. This means if the numbers follow you can lay off each of his picks and turn a profit. Flip reversed you can also back the picks of the successful tipster and make a good return also!

If you are interested in finding a tipping service that is currently in profit of over £2000 in the past 2 months then there is one you might be interested in; to find out which one click here

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Information on Handicapping Horses

2010-01-12T15:43:00.000-08:00

Information on Handicapping Horses

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If you're not exactly the kind of person that's going to go to Georgetown Law School and make some big bucks selling your memoirs and doing public speaking gigs for six figures like Bill Clinton then rolling the dice with some informed racehorse betting strategies could be your best shot at getting lucky and raking in some big bucks. Just because President Clinton is able to spend his free time leisurely traveling the globe with his Georgetown University golf bag doesn't mean that you won't some day be able to do the same once you cash in your chips and finally get your life changing lucky break.

Which Horse Racing Handicapping Betting Method is Better, Key Horse Or Box?
By: Bill Peterson

When trying to hit exactas and trifectas there are several types of bets that you can use. The box wager for most people means picking some horses that seem the most talented in the field and boxing them together so no matter which one wins, as long as you cover all legs of the bet, you win. A three horse trifecta box is a good bet if you can narrow it down to three horses.

Though the three most talented horses don't always complete the trifecta, we won't get into picking horses that are more likely to place and show, for the sake of brevity. Whether playing the trifecta, exacta, superfecta, or some other type of bet, the most talented horses will probably be the favorites so some people like to take several of the most likely horses and play them with some longshots in their wager. This type of result, a longshot or two with a few of the favorites, often does happen and can pay off nicely.

Other people like to try to narrow it down to one good horse and to key on that one, wheeling it on top over some others. They may subscribe to the same theory and throw a few longshots in, or may simply play it over some other promising runners. While it isn't a s common, there is another type of key bet, some punters choose a longshot as a key horse looking for astronomical payoffs. If you can pick longshots that are live, it isn't a bad bet, but the reason they are longshots isn't because they show the most promise.

If you are trying to make a profit from your wagers, however, rather than just looking for a thrill, you may have really struggled with this problem and may have experimented with these types of wagers. One thing becomes apparent, if you only bet favorites, you will have to have a very high strike rate to make any profit. It is absolutely essential, if you are serious about making money betting on horses, that you learn how to spot a good bet.

A good bet is one that pays more than it costs. That may sound like gibberish, but let me explain. If you key on a horse in a trifecta, say a $1 tri wheel in an 8 horse race that will cost $42, then you must hit the trifecta often enough to pay that $42 plus a profit. If you make that same bet 10 times for a total of $420, you need to cash enough trifecta tickets to pay you back the $420 plus a profit. So the key horse is the only runner you are concerned with and this simplifies things. On the other hand, wheeling a horse over 7 others is an expensive bet. When wagering on horse races, you often pay for the luxury of simplicity.

In order to make a profit, even if two favorites complete the trifecta, you will need a key horse that is at long enough odds to make a good trifecta payoff. Picking key horses for trifecta bets or even exacta wheels requires good handicapping skills or you must buy the information from a reliable provider of horse racing handicapping services.

The only way to figure out which bet is the better bet, the wheel or box, is to experiment with your own picks to see how often you can isolate one good horse and how often a box that you select pays off. I advise you to practice for a month with at least 50 test boxes and 50 wheels in the same race. I advise you to do it on paper and not to spend money, until you have determined which one works best.

To learn how a handicapping service can help you, go to http://Petersonspicks.com and see how Bill Peterson, a former race horse owner and professional handicapper, can help you to have more winners. To see all Bill's horse racing material go to Horse Racing Handicapping, Bill's handicapping store.

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