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by: Bill Peterson
Finding a long shot that wins at a good price is one of the great thrills for a handicapper, but there is usually a good reason for a horse going off at long odds. Therefore, if you chase long shots, you're bound to go broke real fast.
The fact that the trainer or rider of a particular horse hasn't won many races will often drive the odds up, even though the horse is a solid contender. That is because too much emphasis is placed on the abilities of the people involved with the horse and too little emphasis is placed on the horse's ability.
The reason so many handicappers place so much importance on the jockey or trainer is that most of the races are won by just a handful of top jockeys and top trainers at most tracks. Every once in a while an obscure trainer or low percentage jockey manages to win a race, and usually at good odds. The reason this happens is that the average bettor likes to be reassured that he or she is betting on a proven professional conditioner or rider.
While it is true that the horse can't win without the jockey, it is also true that the jockey can only go as fast as the horse can run. I have seen mediocre jockeys beat Hall of Fame jockeys because they had the better horse. Therefore, if you are looking for a good long shot bet in a horse race, try to find a favorite that is being over bet because the jockey is a favorite of the crowd.
It also helps if the horse being ridden by the top jockey is dropping in class. Though a drop in class often helps a horse, if the horse's form is declining, it may have lost its ability to win, even at a lower level. That top level jockey may have stayed on the mount out of gratitude to the owner or trainer, but he or she may also realize the horse has little chance of winning. When an animal starts to lose its physical conditioning, it often loses its will to win and will disappoint, even at a lower class level.
Therefore, find a top jockey on a horse that is over rated by the crowd in a race with a solid contender being ridden by a little known jockey and you may find an excellent long shot bet.
Long shots are the best bets when you know how to rate them with Bill's Long shot Rater at http://williewins.homestead.com/longshotrater.html. To see all Bill's horse racing material go to http://williewins.homestead.com/handicappingstore.html Bill's handicapping store.
article source: ezine articles