Race horse handicapping is both an art and a science and in this article I'm going to reveal my secret strategy for consistently beating the race horse handicapping experts and how by doing so I consistently make more money at the race horse track than everyone else.
Race horse handicapping has been practiced for centuries and even today in the information age with almost instantaneous information at our finger tips horse race handicapping is at best an inexact science.
By using the contrarian strategy that I'm about to describe to beat the pros you will be winning more than you statistically should for years to come.
My strategy is based on the fact that most race horse bettors are fueled by their emotions and more often than not they make irrational decisions when looking at race horse handicapping.
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Here's a refresher course on the basics of betting on horses and how race horse handicapping works:
With race horse handicapping the payouts (or spread) aren't locked in at the at the moment a bet is placed. This is in contrast to most other sports betting situations (football, basketball, etc.).
If a week before the Super Bowl you bet on the Pittsburgh Steelers to beat the Arizona Cardinals by at least four points and then a couple of days before the game the line moves to where the Steelers have to beat the Cardinals by six points (or more) for the exact same payout then you get the benefit of having locked in the better odds early.
As stated above race horse handicapping works very differently. Much like its sports betting counterparts the payout (odds, line, whatever you want to call it) can change right up until the start of the event (kickoff, opening of the gate, tip-off, etc.).
The race horse handicapping experts and line setters for other sports adjust the payouts to mitigate their exposure to loss. If the action (betting) on a particular horse or team is so great that it could expose the race horse handicappers to a substantial loss they will adjust (lower) the payouts to reduce that risk.
The major difference with race horse handicapping is that the payouts change even after you've placed your bet. Therefore even more important than knowing what the payout is when you place your bet is having an idea of what the final payout will be - in other words what the final race horse handicapping figure will be at the time the race starts.
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For those not familiar with the system here's a quick overview in it's simplest form:
Race horse handicapping has been practiced for centuries and even today in the information age with almost instantaneous information at our finger tips horse race handicapping is at best an inexact science.
By using the contrarian strategy that I'm about to describe to beat the pros you will be winning more than you statistically should for years to come.
My strategy is based on the fact that most race horse bettors are fueled by their emotions and more often than not they make irrational decisions when looking at race horse handicapping.
________________________________________________________
Here's a refresher course on the basics of betting on horses and how race horse handicapping works:
With race horse handicapping the payouts (or spread) aren't locked in at the at the moment a bet is placed. This is in contrast to most other sports betting situations (football, basketball, etc.).
If a week before the Super Bowl you bet on the Pittsburgh Steelers to beat the Arizona Cardinals by at least four points and then a couple of days before the game the line moves to where the Steelers have to beat the Cardinals by six points (or more) for the exact same payout then you get the benefit of having locked in the better odds early.
As stated above race horse handicapping works very differently. Much like its sports betting counterparts the payout (odds, line, whatever you want to call it) can change right up until the start of the event (kickoff, opening of the gate, tip-off, etc.).
The race horse handicapping experts and line setters for other sports adjust the payouts to mitigate their exposure to loss. If the action (betting) on a particular horse or team is so great that it could expose the race horse handicappers to a substantial loss they will adjust (lower) the payouts to reduce that risk.
The major difference with race horse handicapping is that the payouts change even after you've placed your bet. Therefore even more important than knowing what the payout is when you place your bet is having an idea of what the final payout will be - in other words what the final race horse handicapping figure will be at the time the race starts.
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For those not familiar with the system here's a quick overview in it's simplest form:
- Race horse handicapping experts may set the payout for a horse named "Lightning" at 1:2, meaning that this horse is such a favorite that for every $2 you bet you only win $1 ($3 payback) if this horse wins.
- Another horse named "Steady Pace" has his initial race horse handicapping odds set at 3:1, meaning that this horse is such a long shot that for every $1 you bet you win $3 (payback of $4) if this horse wins.
Before continuing this discussion we should briefly discuss the psychology of (literally) picking a horse.
Lots of bettors at the race track think they have a system for beating the experts and whether that means online research before race day, meticulously watching the horses before a race, or any number of other methods the ultimate decisions often come down to their gut feelings.
The other group of people that you see at the race track are substantially different in some respects and surprisingly similar in others.
The group I'm now talking about is the casual fans who come out with their families and just plan to place some bets for fun. The one thing this group has in common with the more serious race horse enthusiasts is that when it comes to beating the line setting professionals both groups go with their gut feelings.
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Now that we've gone over a little bit of the psychology involved in picking race horses let's get back to the two horses described earlier:
- Lightning, the favorite, opened at 1:2
- Steady Pace, the long shot, opened at 3:1
As mentioned earlier these lines set by the race horse handicapping experts aren't set in stone and can (and likely will) move right up until the start of the race - regardless of how early you place your bet.
Logic dictates (and it's been my experience) that the popular horse names command an inordinate amount of action (betting). By this I mean that if a horse has a particularly attractive sounding name (i.e. Lightning) it's likely to get a relatively greater amount of money bet on it than a horse with a less attractive sounding name (i.e. Steady Pace).
Initially the race horse handicapping experts set the lines based on the ability and track records of these horses (with no consideration given to the superficial names).
With names like Lightning and Steady Pace it wouldn't be surprising to see the lines move from:
Logic dictates (and it's been my experience) that the popular horse names command an inordinate amount of action (betting). By this I mean that if a horse has a particularly attractive sounding name (i.e. Lightning) it's likely to get a relatively greater amount of money bet on it than a horse with a less attractive sounding name (i.e. Steady Pace).
Initially the race horse handicapping experts set the lines based on the ability and track records of these horses (with no consideration given to the superficial names).
With names like Lightning and Steady Pace it wouldn't be surprising to see the lines move from:
- Lightning, the favorite, opened at 1:2 - closed at 1:4
- Steady Pace, the long shot, opened at 3:1 - closed at 5:1
What this means is that because so much money was bet on Lightning (due to his attractive name) the line setting gurus changed the payout from $1 won for every $2 bet to $1 won for every $4 bet. Essentially cutting the payout in half.
On the flip side the race horse handicapping powers that be saw that not enough people were betting on Steady Pace (whose name doesn't conjure up images of speed) so to increase the betting on this horse they had to improve his payout from $3 won for every $1 bet to $5 won for every $1 bet. Essentially increasing the payout by 66.7%.
Basically what's happened is that despite the rational and mathematical approach that the race horse handicapping group took to initially set the lines based on the best estimated probabilities of victory the betting public with its inclination to trust its collective gut has artificially moved the lines so that the payouts don't accurately reflect the probabilities of the outcomes.
Based on the initial race horse handicapping we know that Lightning is technically still the favorite to win the race and Steady Pace is still the long shot. A more important fact is that even though we still don't expect Steady Pace to win this race we know that if he does his payout will be higher than the probabilities should dictate. Conversely, the reward for correctly picking Lightning isn't sufficient compensation for the risk taken.
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Simply put the purpose of this oversimplified example is to illustrate that in the long run you're far better off going against the grain and taking a contrarian approach when it comes to your analysis.
Don't fall into the 'group think' that an appealing name like Lightning, or Money-Bags, or Speed Demon means the horse is any better than what the race horse handicapping crew originally set the line at. Pick horses with the least appealing names and in the long run you'll do far better than if you had fallen in line with the masses.
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If you're completely new to race horse handicapping and the more advanced systems in the right hand column seem too complex for you I suggest starting with Betting on Horse Racing for Dummies from the popular series available at most bookstores and on Amazon.com.
On the flip side the race horse handicapping powers that be saw that not enough people were betting on Steady Pace (whose name doesn't conjure up images of speed) so to increase the betting on this horse they had to improve his payout from $3 won for every $1 bet to $5 won for every $1 bet. Essentially increasing the payout by 66.7%.
Basically what's happened is that despite the rational and mathematical approach that the race horse handicapping group took to initially set the lines based on the best estimated probabilities of victory the betting public with its inclination to trust its collective gut has artificially moved the lines so that the payouts don't accurately reflect the probabilities of the outcomes.
Based on the initial race horse handicapping we know that Lightning is technically still the favorite to win the race and Steady Pace is still the long shot. A more important fact is that even though we still don't expect Steady Pace to win this race we know that if he does his payout will be higher than the probabilities should dictate. Conversely, the reward for correctly picking Lightning isn't sufficient compensation for the risk taken.
________________________________________________________
Simply put the purpose of this oversimplified example is to illustrate that in the long run you're far better off going against the grain and taking a contrarian approach when it comes to your analysis.
Don't fall into the 'group think' that an appealing name like Lightning, or Money-Bags, or Speed Demon means the horse is any better than what the race horse handicapping crew originally set the line at. Pick horses with the least appealing names and in the long run you'll do far better than if you had fallen in line with the masses.
________________________________________________________
If you're completely new to race horse handicapping and the more advanced systems in the right hand column seem too complex for you I suggest starting with Betting on Horse Racing for Dummies from the popular series available at most bookstores and on Amazon.com.